It’s Not Just Politics… Other Expenses Keeping Canadians Away From Spending on Housing
Buyers Could Edge Back to Canada’s Housing market in 2026, says real estate giant
Royal LePage’s latest market survey casts 2026 as a reset year rather than a rebound, with national prices barely higher and some of Canada’s priciest markets still under pressure.
The brokerage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in Canada would rise 1% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,016, with single-family homes up 2% to $876,934 and condos down 2.5% to $563,918.
Royal LePage framed that outlook as the product of a turbulent 2025, marked by trade tensions with Washington, a change in Ottawa and four Bank of Canada rate cuts that pulled its policy rate down to 2.25%.
Economists widely expect the central bank to pause unless growth weakened significantly, a backdrop that leave many borrowers waiting to see where rates settled.
“Solid market fundamentals – including lower interest rates, increased supply, and reduced competition – have created a more favourable environment for consumers,” said Phil Soper, Royal LePage’s president and CEO.
“First-time buyers and those searching in the country’s most expensive regions have a rare window to act on their home ownership plans at reduced prices.”
He added that “this improved affordability will rebuild market confidence among both buyers and sellers, setting the stage for more sustainable, albeit modest, price growth in 2026.”
Regional gaps, familiar risks
Home prices are expected to rise modestly in most major centres, with forecast gains of up to 2% in Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Halifax and Winnipeg, and 5% in Montreal.
Quebec City again stands out, with a projected 12% increase in its aggregate price, while Regina is seen up 4%.
By contrast, Toronto and Vancouver are expected to see further price erosion, with Royal LePage calling for 4.5% and 3.5% declines respectively in the aggregate price of a home.
Soper acknowledged that the firm’s earlier call for a strong 2025 recovery has missed the mark.
“We had predicted a robust recovery, and then Trump 2.0 came along,” he said, citing the “scale and scope” of U.S. trade rhetoric that “just set [buyers] back on their heels. Confidence plummeted.”
Signals for mortgage professionals
The outlook aligns with other recent Royal LePage commentary that Canada’s housing market has been “shifting toward balance, as easing prices, rising listings and renewed rate cuts improve affordability across most regions,” Soper said in an earlier report.
Wage growth has also begun to outpace home price gains in many markets, even as borrowing costs remain above pre-pandemic levels.
For brokers and lenders, the message is that 2026 might bring a busier, but still fragile, market: one where improved affordability lures sidelined borrowers back, yet persistent macro risks and regional divergences keep advice, product structuring and risk management central to every deal.
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