Canadian household affordability under pressure? Mortgage Renewal Wave May Suggest So…

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Canada’s coming mortgage renewal wave is emerging as a major household affordability challenge, with many borrowers facing limited room to absorb higher payments, even as confidence in the value of homeownership remains resilient, according to new consumer research from Mortgage Professionals Canada.

The new Mortgage Professionals Canada report, based on consumer survey research conducted by Bond Brand Loyalty, finds that one-third of mortgage holders expect to renew within the next 12 months. Among those borrowers, 67% are anxious about renewing at a higher interest rate.

Across mortgage holders overall, 6% say they are already struggling with their payments, while another 44% would have difficulty if payments rose by less than 15%, underscoring how closely renewal risk is tied to household cash flow and payment flexibility.

“Renewal pressure is not just about interest rates. It is about how much room households have to absorb a higher payment,” said Lauren van den Berg, president and CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada. “This research shows many borrowers are approaching renewal with thin payment buffers, which makes early advice, careful planning and access to the right mortgage options more important than ever.”

Recent buyers and newcomers face sharper pressure

The pressure is more pronounced among borrowers newer to the market. Among past-five-year first-time buyers, 66% are anxious about renewing at a higher rate and 37% regret the size of mortgage they took on. Among those new to Canada, 68% are anxious about renewing at a higher rate and 57% regret the size of mortgage they took on.

Newcomers also show higher payment vulnerability, with 67% either already struggling or saying they would struggle before payments rose 15%, compared with 53% of past-five-year first-time buyers.

“These findings show how uneven mortgage-market pressure has become,” said Maxime Stencer, chair of the board of Mortgage Professionals Canada. “Recent buyers and newcomers are often among the most exposed because they entered the market at higher prices, with larger obligations and less room for error. That is where professional mortgage advice can make a meaningful difference, particularly before renewal deadlines arrive.”

The report also points to growing reliance on income generated from the home itself. More than one-third of Canadians say they need to rent part of their home to afford ownership, up from 25% in 2021. Among past-five-year first-time buyers, 29% have rented or plan to rent part of their home. Among those new to Canada, that share rises to 53%.

For non-owners, homeownership expectations have improved from their 2023 low point, though affordability continues to weigh on the future mortgage pipeline. Thirty-two per cent of non-owners say they never expect to own a home, down from 51% in 2023 and back near 2022 levels. At the same time, 66% say current economic conditions have delayed their plans to buy, while 22% expect to purchase within the next two years.

Confidence in homeownership remains resilient

Despite affordability pressures, confidence in housing remains broadly intact. The survey found 76% of Canadians agree that real estate in Canada is a good long-term investment, while 74% classify mortgages as “good debt.” Among those new to Canada, 79% classify mortgages as good debt, the highest share among the segments highlighted in the report.

“For governments, regulators and industry, the message is clear, Canadians continue to value homeownership, but they need a system that supports them through today’s affordability pressures,” van den Berg said. “That means increasing consumer choice, better access to professional mortgage advice, and advancing practical policy solutions that keep the dream of homeownership within reach.”

The findings are based on a 20-minute online survey of close to 2,000 Canadians across all regions, conducted by Bond Brand Loyalty between Feb. 5 and 25, 2026.